Work Package 6: Scoping landscape-scale and national wildfire risk assessment

The risk from wildfire is a function of the likelihood of a fire occurring and the impact it has, which is partly a function of the spread and severity of a fire, and of the assets affected (natural habitats, infrastructure, communities and businesses impacted). In some schemes used for FDRS the possible impact is termed the ‘threat’. This WP will develop further the approach for mapping assets at risk tested in the 2014 NERC PURE project on scoping Wildfire Threat Analysis (WTA) through new case studies, combined with expert consultation from the steering group. For tactical and strategic management of wildfire risk the threat needs to be assessed at a national level. We will produce a ‘proof of concept’ UK map of assets and populations at risk from. Such a risk map could then be used to test scenarios for the impact of land use change and climate change on UK wildfire risk.

Key research questions

RQ6.1: Can the wildfire threat be characterised robustly from the risk information derived here coupled with available spatial information on assets at risk?

RQ6.2: At what scale is a map of wildfire threat useful for the different stakeholder groups?

Planned deliverables

D6.1: A series of case studies analysing significant wildfire incidents in typical fire-prone landscapes, including assessing assets at risk, post-hoc modelling of fire behaviour for threats.

D6.2: Assessment of what is required to produce a national map of wildfire threat suitable for different end-users/stakeholders.

Key organisations and team members: University of Manchester (GC, GM-C), London School of Economics (TS)